Yesterday, AMSAT-DL published the news that they have been unable to receive any signals from Tianwen-1 with the 20 m antenna in Bochum since 2025-12-23. As you may know if you have been following my posts about Tianwen-1, AMSAT-DL has been using this antenna to receive and decode telemetry from Tianwen-1 almost every day since the beginning of the mission in 2020-07-23. The news about the lack of signal detected from Tianwen-1 over the last few months were hardly a secret, because AMSAT-DL runs a livestream of the signals received with the Bochum antenna 24/7, so anyone could look at the livestream and realize that Tianwen-1 was being observed but no signal was visible on the spectrum. However, now that the public has been made well aware of this fact, I can make some more comments about it. There has been no public communication from the Chinese space program regarding this, so the fate of Tianwen-1 is currently unknown.
During December 2025 and January 2026, there was a Mars conjunction, which means that Mars goes behind the Sun as seen from Earth. Communications with Mars orbiters cannot happen during this period of time. For instance, this news piece hints at NASA Mars missions not having contact between 2025-12-29 and 2026-01-16, which corresponds to a Sun-Earth-Mars angle (elongation) of 3º on 2025-12-29 and 1.8º on 2026-01-16, with the minimum elongation achieved on 2026-01-09. Therefore, it was completely expected that we would lose Tianwen-1’s signal during the conjunction period. Because the communications link to Earth does not work, spacecraft will usually not point their high gain antennas to Earth and even stop transmitting during this period. However, we expected to see Tianwen-1 back again after the conjunction, and we never did.
I have been using the telemetry decoded by AMSAT-DL, which includes the spacecraft state vectors, to keep track of the spacecraft orbit. I have been posting updates about any change that happens. The last one was the apoapsis raise on 2025-01-08. The lack of signals from Tianwen-1 sparked internal discussion about whether the spacecraft might have intentionally reentered some time around the conjunction period as a way of terminating the mission without leaving orbital debris. To analyse whether this could be possible, I have updated my orbit analysis to account for all the telemetry that has been received so far, up to 2025-12-22, which is when the last telemetry was decoded.
The result can be seen in the figure below. We see the apoapsis raises that happened during the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025. After that there have been no manoeuvres.
Since the plot above indicates that the periapsis radius would be going towards a minimum at the beginning of 2026 due to long-term periodic orbit perturbations, I propagated the last telemetry data we have forward with the goal of studying the impact of the larger apoapsis radius. The results are shown here. We note that the apoapsis radius minimum is now much higher than in the past, so the hypothesis of a reentry is unlikely unless a manoeuvre that we didn’t see in the telemetry has happened.
I have update the Jupyter notebook that has made these plots.